Brian Robinson Rushing TD - Player Prop Bet Week 11

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Brian Robinson

NFL · Player Props

Brian Robinson

RB · Washington Commanders

Rushing TD

Houston Texans vs Washington Commanders · Week 11, 2022

Updated Nov 20, 2022 8:21 PM UTC

Analysis

Brian Robinson Rushing TD Prop is currently Over/Under 0.5 (+133/-180).

The money has been on the Under as it opened 0.5 @ -173 before it was bet down to 0.5 @ -180.

Key Factors

Favors Over

The Commanders are an enormous 11.5-point underdog this week, likely leading to an extreme passing game script.
THE BLITZ projects the Washington Commanders to be the 8th-most run-centric offense in football near the end zone (adjusted for context) right now with a 45.6% red zone run rate.
Brian Robinson has garnered 46.7% of his offense's red zone carries this year, ranking in the 84th percentile among RBs.
Brian Robinson has rushed for 0.33 TDs per game on the ground this year (on average), one of the largest marks in the NFL among running backs (76th percentile).
Opposing squads have run for the 4th-most touchdowns in football (1.44 per game) vs. the Houston Texans defense this year.

Favors Under

THE BLITZ projects the Washington Commanders offense as the 7th-worst paced team in the league (adjusted for context) at the present time, averaging 29.11 seconds per play.
The Washington Commanders O-line grades out as the 5th-worst in football this year at opening holes for rushers.

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