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Brian Robinson

Brian Robinson Receptions
Player Prop Week 2

Washington Commanders vs New York Giants

Brian Robinson Receptions Prop is currently Over/Under 1.5 (-220/+160).

The money has been on the Over as it opened 1.5 @ -190 before it was bet up to 1.5 @ -220.

FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE OVER:

The projections expect the Commanders offense to be the 8th-quickest paced team in the NFL (context-neutralized) at the present time, averaging 27.27 seconds per snap.

Brian Robinson ranks as one of the leading pass-catching running backs since the start of last season, averaging an impressive 2.5 adjusted receptions per game while grading out in the 76th percentile.

With a fantastic 89.1% Adjusted Catch Rate (96th percentile) since the start of last season, Brian Robinson has been as one of the best possession receivers in the league among RBs.

Since the start of last season, the weak New York Giants pass defense has surrendered a whopping 90.1% Adjusted Completion Rate to opposing RBs: the 2nd-largest rate in football.

FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE UNDER:

With a 3-point advantage, the Commanders are favored this week, suggesting more of a focus on running than their usual approach.

Based on their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics, the leading projections forecast the Washington Commanders to pass on 50.6% of their opportunities: the 3rd-lowest clip among all teams this week.

Washington's passing stats since the start of last season may be artificially propped up a bit (and rushing stats too low) on account of playing the 10th-most "low wind" (4-mph or less) games in the NFL. We figure to be able to count on some regression with windier conditions in this game.

When it comes to defensive tackles rushing the passer, New York's collection of DTs has been great since the start of last season, profiling as the 2nd-best in the league.

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