Brian Robinson Receptions - Player Prop Bet Week 5

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Brian Robinson

NFL · Player Props

Brian Robinson

RB · Washington Commanders

Receptions

Washington Commanders vs Chicago Bears · Week 5, 2023

Updated Oct 6, 2023 12:16 AM UTC

Analysis

Brian Robinson Receptions Prop is currently Over/Under 1.5 (+105/-135).

The money has been on the Under as it opened 1.5 @ -125 before it was bet down to 1.5 @ -135.

Key Factors

Favors Over

The Washington Commanders will have a new play-caller this year in offensive coordinator Eric Bieniemy, and the projections expect their pass/run mix to tilt 11.3% more towards passing than it did last year (adjusted for context).
The model projects the Washington Commanders to be the 5th-most pass-oriented offense in the league (in a neutral context) at the moment with a 65.4% pass rate.
The weather report calls for 4-mph wind in this game. Low wind usually means higher pass volume, and lower ground volume, higher TD potential, and increased passing efficiency.
Brian Robinson has been more involved as a potential pass-catcher this season (32.6% Route Participation Rate in games he has been on the field) than he did last season (20.0%).
Brian Robinson's ball-catching skills have been refined this season, with his Adjusted Catch Rate increasing from 74.9% to 83.3%.

Favors Under

The Commanders are a 6-point favorite this week, likely leading to a rushing game script.
Based on the game dynamics and the underlying traits of each team, this contest is forecasted by the projections to see only 121.7 offensive plays called: the 2nd-fewest out of all the games this week.
Opposing teams teams have been wary to lean on the pass against the Bears, totaling the 8th-fewest attempts in football (a lowly 34.0 per game) this year.

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