Brian Robinson Receiving Yards - Player Prop Bet Week 12

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NFL · Player Props

Brian Robinson

RB · Washington Commanders

Receiving Yards

Dallas Cowboys vs Washington Commanders · Week 12, 2023

Updated Nov 23, 2023 8:36 PM EST

Analysis

Brian Robinson Receiving Yards Prop is currently Over/Under 20.5 (-125/-105).

Key Factors

Favors Over

The Commanders have a new play-caller this year in offensive coordinator Eric Bieniemy, and the projections expect their pass/run mix to tilt 13.6% more towards passing than it did last year (in a neutral context).
The Commanders are a big 13.5-point underdog in this week's game, which points towards an extreme passing game script.
Given their underlying traits and matchup dynamics, the predictive model expects the Washington Commanders to pass on 70.3% of their plays: the greatest frequency on the slate this week.
This game will be played in a dome—which means no wind, higher pass volume, higher TD potential, and better passing effectiveness.
With a RATE1-RATE2 point jump in WOPR (Weighted Opportunity Rating—an advanced metric that weighs high-value offensive usage) from last season to this one, Brian Robinson has been more heavily utilized in his team's passing attack.

Favors Under

At the moment, the 10th-slowest paced team in the NFL (context-neutralized) according to our trusted projection set is the Washington Commanders.
Opposing teams teams have been disinclined to lean on the pass against the Dallas Cowboys, averaging the 2nd-fewest attempts in the NFL (just 29.1 per game) this year.
Brian Robinson has accrued a feeble -3.0 air yards per game this year: a lowly 11th percentile when it comes to RBs.
With a subpar 0.00 yards-after-the-catch (YAC) (2nd percentile) this year, Brian Robinson stands as one of the leading running backs in the pass game in football in picking up extra yardage.
The Dallas Cowboys defense has yielded the 8th-fewest adjusted receiving yards per game in the NFL (just 27.0) to RBs this year.