Brian Robinson Receiving Yards - Player Prop Bet Week 1

NFL · Player Props

Brian Robinson

RB · Washington Commanders

Receiving Yards

Washington Commanders vs Arizona Cardinals · Week 1, 2023

Updated Sep 10, 2023 7:31 PM EST

Analysis

Brian Robinson Receiving Yards Prop is currently Over/Under 5.5 (-110/-120).

The money has been on the Under as it opened 5.5 @ -110 before it was bet down to 5.5 @ -120.

Key Factors

Favors Over

The Washington Commanders will have a new play-caller this season in offensive coordinator Eric Bieniemy, and THE BLITZ projects their pass/run mix to lean 9.7% more towards passing than it did last season (in a neutral context).
THE BLITZ projects the Washington Commanders to be the 6th-quickest paced defense in the league (context-neutralized) right now, leading opposing offenses to average 27.73 seconds per snap.
The Arizona Cardinals defense has surrendered the 3rd-most receiving yards per game in football (43.0) to running backs since the start of last season.
The Arizona Cardinals pass defense has surrendered the 5th-highest Completion% in the league (84.4%) versus RBs since the start of last season (84.4%).
The Arizona Cardinals defensive tackles rank as the worst unit in the league since the start of last season in regard to rushing the passer.

Favors Under

The Commanders are a heavy 7-point favorite in this week's game, indicating an extreme rushing game script.
THE BLITZ projects the Washington Commanders to be the 9th-least pass-centric team among all teams this week with a 55.7% pass rate, based on their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics.
Brian Robinson has totaled a paltry -1.0 air yards per game since the start of last season: just 20th percentile among running backs.
The Washington Commanders offensive line ranks as the 2nd-worst in the league since the start of last season in pass protection, which has a negative impact on all passing attack metrics across the board.
Brian Robinson has been among the weakest pass-catching running backs since the start of last season, averaging a lowly 5.0 yards per game while grading out in the 21st percentile among RBs.