Brian Robinson Carries - Player Prop Bet Week 8

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Brian Robinson

NFL · Player Props

Brian Robinson

RB · Washington Commanders

Carries

Washington Commanders vs Philadelphia Eagles · Week 8, 2023

Updated Oct 29, 2023 4:16 PM UTC

Analysis

Brian Robinson Carries Prop is currently Over/Under 10.5 (+110/-140).

The money has been on the Under as it opened 10.5 @ -125 before it was bet down to 10.5 @ -140.

Key Factors

Favors Over

Out of all RBs, Brian Robinson grades out in the 89th percentile for rush attempts this year, accounting for 60.3% of the workload in his team's running game.

Favors Under

The Commanders feature a new play-caller this year in offensive coordinator Eric Bieniemy, and the model projects their pass/run mix to tilt 13.1% more towards passing than it did last year (context-neutralized).
At a -6.5-point disadvantage, the Commanders are underdogs in this week's contest, suggesting more of a reliance on passing than their usual approach.
Given their underlying traits and matchup dynamics, the predictive model expects the Commanders to run on 33.5% of their opportunities: the 2nd-lowest rate on the slate this week.
The weatherman calls for 4-mph wind in this game. Low wind generally means increased pass volume, and reduced ground volume, increased touchdown potential, and better passing effectiveness.
In regards to blocking for rushers (and the influence it has on all run game metrics), the O-line of the Washington Commanders ranks as the 9th-worst in football last year.

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