Brian Robinson Carries - Player Prop Bet Week 13

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Brian Robinson

NFL · Player Props

Brian Robinson

RB · Washington Commanders

Carries

Washington Commanders vs Miami Dolphins · Week 13, 2023

Updated Dec 3, 2023 8:21 PM UTC

Analysis

Brian Robinson Carries Prop is currently Over/Under 10.5 (-115/-115).

The money has been on the Over as it opened 10.5 @ -110 before it was bet up to 10.5 @ -115.

Key Factors

Favors Over

Brian Robinson has earned 61.9% of his team's rushing play calls this year, ranking him in the 93rd percentile among RBs.

Favors Under

The Commanders have a new play-caller this year in offensive coordinator Eric Bieniemy, and the projections expect their pass/run mix to tilt 12.9% more towards passing than it did last year (context-neutralized).
This week's line implies an extreme passing game script for the Commanders, who are heavy -8.5-point underdogs.
Given their underlying propensities and matchup dynamics, the predictive model expects the Commanders to run on 32.4% of their downs: the lowest rate among all teams this week.
Right now, the 9th-slowest paced team in football (context-neutralized) according to the model is the Washington Commanders.
Still weather conditions (like the 4-mph wind being projected in this game) usually prompt better passing effectiveness, increased TD potential, increased pass volume, and lower rush volume.

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