Brian Robinson Carries - Player Prop Bet Week 10

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NFL · Player Props

Brian Robinson

RB · Washington Commanders

Carries

Philadelphia Eagles vs Washington Commanders · Week 10, 2022

Updated Nov 15, 2022 1:16 AM UTC

Analysis

Brian Robinson Carries Prop is currently Over/Under 9.5 (-114/-114).

The money has been on the Under as it opened 11.5 @ -130 before it was bet down to 9.5 @ -114.

Key Factors

Favors Over

THE BLITZ projects this game to have the least plays run on the slate this week at 132.1 plays, accounting for the tendencies of each team and game dynamics.
The Washington Commanders have run the 8th-most plays in the NFL this year, totaling a monstrous 61.7 plays per game.
Brian Robinson has earned 51.9% of his team's rush attempts this year, ranking him in the 85th percentile among RBs.
The Washington Commanders have faced a stacked the box on just 12.2% of their plays since the start of last season, 6th-least in the NFL. Bringing an extra defender close to the line of scrimmage improves run-stopping at the cost of better passing efficiency.
The Washington Commanders have risked going for it on 4th down 24.1% of the time since the start of last season (4th-most in the NFL), which typically means more offensive volume, more touchdown potential, and higher offensive stats across the board.

Favors Under

The Washington Commanders will be starting backup QB Taylor Heinicke in this week's contest, which typically means fewer pass attempts and more rush attempts.
The Commanders are a 3-point underdog in this game, likely creating a passing game script.
THE BLITZ projects the Washington Commanders to be the least run-heavy offense on the slate this week with a 39.9% run rate, given their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics.
The forecast calls for 2-mph wind in this game. Low wind usually means increased pass volume, increased TD potential, and increased passing effectiveness.
The Washington Commanders offensive line profiles as the worst in the league this year at opening holes for rushers.