Breece Hall Rushing Yards - Player Prop Bet Week 1

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NFL · Player Props

Breece Hall

RB · New York Jets

Rushing Yards

New York Jets vs Buffalo Bills · Week 1, 2023

Updated Sep 11, 2023 11:46 PM UTC

Analysis

Breece Hall Rushing Yards Prop is currently Over/Under 34.5 (-117/-112).

The money has been on the Over as it opened 32.5 @ -117 before it was bet up to 34.5 @ -117.

Key Factors

Favors Over

Breece Hall has grinded out 66.0 yards per game on the ground since the start of last season, one of the largest marks in the NFL among running backs (91st percentile).
Breece Hall's rushing effectiveness (5.77 yards per carry) has been some of the best in the league since the start of last season (93rd percentile among running backs).
Breece Hall has been among the best RBs in the NFL at picking up extra running yardage, averaging a terrific 4.12 yards-after-contact since the start of last season while ranking in the 96th percentile.
The Buffalo Bills safeties profile as the 29th-worst unit in the league since the start of last season with their run defense.

Favors Under

The New York Jets boast a new play-caller this season in offensive coordinator Nathaniel Hackett, and THE BLITZ projects their pass/run mix to tilt 2.2% more towards passing than it did last season (context-neutralized).
THE BLITZ projects the New York Jets as the least run-centric offense among all teams this week with a 36.6% run rate, given their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics.
THE BLITZ projects the Jets to run the least plays on offense on the slate this week with 63.1 plays, given their underlying tendencies and game dynamics.
The New York Jets have played in the 2nd-most "bad weather" (rain, snow, or 15+ mph wind) games in football since the start of last season, which ought to lead to higher pass volume, lower running volume, and improved offense performance when facing better conditions in this week's contest.
The weatherman calls for 4-mph wind in this game. Low wind usually means increased pass volume, increased TD potential, and better passing efficiency.