Breece Hall Rushing Yards - Player Prop Bet Week 1

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Breece Hall

NFL · Player Props

Breece Hall

RB · New York Jets

Rushing Yards

New York Jets vs Baltimore Ravens · Week 1, 2022

Updated Sep 11, 2022 11:34 PM EST

Analysis

Breece Hall Rushing Yards Prop is currently Over/Under 32.5 (+102/-133).

The money has been on the Under as it opened 32.5 @ -128 before it was bet down to 32.5 @ -133.

Key Factors

Favors Over

The New York Jets have faced a stacked the box on just 13.6% of their plays since the start of last season, 9th-least in football. Keeping an extra defender near the line of scrimmage improves run-stopping at the cost of better passing efficiency.
The New York Jets have gone for it on 4th down 22.0% of the time since the start of last season (10th-most in football), which usually means more offensive volume, more TD potential, and higher offensive metrics across the board.
The New York Jets have incorporated some form of misdirection on 57.6% of their plays since the start of last season (3rd-most in the NFL), which usually keeps the defense guessing and improves offensive efficiency.

Favors Under

The Jets are a 6.5-point underdog this week, likely creating a passing game script.
THE BLITZ projects the Jets to run the 8th-least plays on offense among all teams this week with 60.6 plays, given their underlying tendencies and game dynamics.
The New York Jets have called the 5th-least plays in the NFL since the start of last season, averaging a measly 60.4 plays per game.
The weather report calls for 4-mph wind in this game. Low wind typically means higher pass volume, higher TD potential, and better passing efficiency.
Opposing offenses have rushed for the least yards in football (just 85 per game) versus the Baltimore Ravens defense since the start of last season.

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