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Breece Hall

Breece Hall Rushing TD
Player Prop Week 1

New York Jets vs Baltimore Ravens

 
 
 
Breece Hall Rushing TD Prop is currently Over/Under 0.5 (+277/-473).

The money has been on the Under as it opened 0.5 @ -415 before it was bet down to 0.5 @ -473.
FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE OVER:
  • THE BLITZ projects the New York Jets as the 9th-most run-oriented offense in the NFL near the goal line (adjusted for context) at the present time with a 44.0% red zone run rate.
  • The New York Jets have faced a stacked the box on just 13.6% of their plays since the start of last season, 9th-least in football. Keeping an extra defender near the line of scrimmage improves run-stopping at the cost of better passing efficiency.
  • The New York Jets have gone for it on 4th down 22.0% of the time since the start of last season (10th-most in football), which usually means more offensive volume, more TD potential, and higher offensive metrics across the board.
  • The New York Jets have incorporated some form of misdirection on 57.6% of their plays since the start of last season (3rd-most in the NFL), which usually keeps the defense guessing and improves offensive efficiency.

  • FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE UNDER:
  • The Jets are a 6.5-point underdog this week, likely creating a passing game script.
  • THE BLITZ projects the Jets to run the 8th-least plays on offense among all teams this week with 60.6 plays, given their underlying tendencies and game dynamics.
  • The New York Jets have called the 5th-least plays in the NFL since the start of last season, averaging a measly 60.4 plays per game.
  • Opposing teams have rushed for the 7th-least TDs in football (0.76 per game) vs. the Baltimore Ravens defense since the start of last season.
  • The Baltimore Ravens defensive ends profile as the 6th-best collection of DEs in the NFL since the start of last season when it comes to stopping the run.

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