Breece Hall Rushing TD - Player Prop Bet Week 1

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Breece Hall

NFL · Player Props

Breece Hall

RB · New York Jets

Rushing TD

New York Jets vs Baltimore Ravens · Week 1, 2022

Updated Sep 11, 2022 11:34 PM UTC

Analysis

Breece Hall Rushing TD Prop is currently Over/Under 0.5 (+277/-473).

The money has been on the Under as it opened 0.5 @ -415 before it was bet down to 0.5 @ -473.

Key Factors

Favors Over

THE BLITZ projects the New York Jets as the 9th-most run-oriented offense in the NFL near the goal line (adjusted for context) at the present time with a 44.0% red zone run rate.
The New York Jets have faced a stacked the box on just 13.6% of their plays since the start of last season, 9th-least in football. Keeping an extra defender near the line of scrimmage improves run-stopping at the cost of better passing efficiency.
The New York Jets have gone for it on 4th down 22.0% of the time since the start of last season (10th-most in football), which usually means more offensive volume, more TD potential, and higher offensive metrics across the board.
The New York Jets have incorporated some form of misdirection on 57.6% of their plays since the start of last season (3rd-most in the NFL), which usually keeps the defense guessing and improves offensive efficiency.

Favors Under

The Jets are a 6.5-point underdog this week, likely creating a passing game script.
THE BLITZ projects the Jets to run the 8th-least plays on offense among all teams this week with 60.6 plays, given their underlying tendencies and game dynamics.
The New York Jets have called the 5th-least plays in the NFL since the start of last season, averaging a measly 60.4 plays per game.
Opposing teams have rushed for the 7th-least TDs in football (0.76 per game) vs. the Baltimore Ravens defense since the start of last season.
The Baltimore Ravens defensive ends profile as the 6th-best collection of DEs in the NFL since the start of last season when it comes to stopping the run.

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