Breece Hall Receptions - Player Prop Bet Week 7

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Breece Hall

NFL · Player Props

Breece Hall

RB · New York Jets

Receptions

Pittsburgh Steelers vs New York Jets · Week 7, 2024

Updated Oct 21, 2024 12:16 AM EST

Analysis

Breece Hall Receptions Prop is currently Over/Under 3.5 (-149/+115).

The money has been on the Under as it opened 3.5 @ +117 before it was bet down to 3.5 @ +115.

Key Factors

Favors Over

The Jets rank as the 2nd-most pass-heavy offense in the league (context-neutralized) this year with a 68.3% pass rate.
The weather report calls for 2-mph wind in this game. Low wind typically means increased pass volume, and reduced run volume, increased touchdown potential, and increased passing effectiveness.
Breece Hall has been used more as a potential target this year (62.2% Route Participation Rate in games he has been on the field) than he did last year (47.8%).
The model projects Breece Hall to garner 5.3 targets in this game, on average, placing him in the 99th percentile among RBs.
The New York Jets O-line profiles as the 3rd-best in the league this year in pass protection, which has a positive influence on all passing attack statistics across the board.

Favors Under

Accounting for their underlying play style and game dynamics, the New York Jets are expected by the predictive model to run just 62.4 total plays in this contest: the 5th-fewest among all teams this week.
Breece Hall's 79.6% Adjusted Completion Rate this year signifies an impressive regression in his pass-catching ability over last year's 85.1% rate.
The Steelers safeties grade out as the 5th-best unit in the NFL this year in covering pass-catchers.

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