Breece Hall Receptions - Player Prop Bet Week 6

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Breece Hall

NFL · Player Props

Breece Hall

RB · New York Jets

Receptions

New York Jets vs Philadelphia Eagles · Week 6, 2023

Updated Oct 15, 2023 11:21 PM UTC

Analysis

Breece Hall Receptions Prop is currently Over/Under 2.5 (+110/-151).

The money has been on the Over as it opened 2.5 @ +123 before it was bet up to 2.5 @ +110.

Key Factors

Favors Over

The New York Jets may pass less in this contest (and hand the ball off more) since they be rolling with backup QB Zach Wilson.
The Jets are a 6.5-point underdog this week, likely creating a passing game script.
The Philadelphia Eagles defense has been a notorious pass funnel this year, allowing opposing QBs to attempt the 3rd-most passes in football (41.0 per game) this year.
In this week's game, Breece Hall is expected by the projection model to finish in the 87th percentile among RBs with 3.7 targets.
Breece Hall's receiving reliability have been refined this year, with his Adjusted Catch% rising from 63.9% to 71.7%.

Favors Under

The Jets have a new play-caller this season in offensive coordinator Nathaniel Hackett, and our trusted projections expect their pass/run mix to skew 1.1% more towards rushing than it did last season (in a neutral context).
Right now, the 5th-slowest paced team in football (context-neutralized) according to the predictive model is the New York Jets.
Breece Hall's 8.5% Target% this season illustrates a a significant reduction in his passing attack usage over last season's 13.5% mark.
Breece Hall's 1.6 adjusted catches per game this season indicates a a noteable diminishment in his receiving talent over last season's 2.7 rate.
The Eagles linebackers project as the 10th-best group of LBs in the league this year in pass coverage.

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