Breece Hall Receptions - Player Prop Bet Week 3

NFL · Player Props

Breece Hall

RB · New York Jets

Receptions

New York Jets vs New England Patriots · Week 3, 2023

Updated Sep 24, 2023 11:31 PM UTC

Analysis

Breece Hall Receptions Prop is currently Over/Under 1.5 (+110/-145).

The money has been on the Under as it opened 1.5 @ -125 before it was bet down to 1.5 @ -145.

Key Factors

Favors Over

The New York Jets will be forced to utilize backup quarterback Zach Wilson in this contest, which typically means fewer pass attempts and more rush attempts.
THE BLITZ projects this game to have the 4th-largest volume of plays run among all games this week at 131.0 plays, accounting for the tendencies of each team and game dynamics.
Opposing teams have averaged 36.6 pass attempts per game vs. the New England Patriots defense since the start of last season: 3rd-most in the NFL.
THE BLITZ projects Breece Hall to garner 3.2 targets this week, on average, ranking him in the 77th percentile among RBs.
Breece Hall has been a big part of his team's pass game, earning a Target Share of 12.5% since the start of last season, which ranks in the 98th percentile among running backs.

Favors Under

The New York Jets will have a new play-caller this season in offensive coordinator Nathaniel Hackett, and THE BLITZ projects their pass/run mix to lean 1.8% more towards rushing than it did last season (context-neutralized).
THE BLITZ projects the New York Jets to be the 8th-least pass-oriented offense on the slate this week with a 55.2% pass rate, accounting for their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics.
The forecast calls for 14-mph wind in this game. High wind typically means lower pass volume (and higher run volume) and worse passing efficiency.
The New York Jets O-line ranks as the 5th-worst in the league since the start of last season in protecting the quarterback, which has a harmful effect on all passing attack statistics across the board.
Breece Hall has been among the least sure-handed receivers in football among RBs, hauling in just 61.0% of passes thrown his way since the start of last season, checking in at the 2nd percentile.