Breece Hall Receptions - Player Prop Bet Week 13

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Breece Hall

NFL · Player Props

Breece Hall

RB · New York Jets

Receptions

New York Jets vs Atlanta Falcons · Week 13, 2023

Updated Dec 3, 2023 8:21 PM UTC

Analysis

Breece Hall Receptions Prop is currently Over/Under 4.0 (-120/-110).

Key Factors

Favors Over

The Jets may pass less in this week's contest (and hand the ball off more) because they be forced to utilize backup QB Tim Boyle.
The Jets feature a new play-caller this season in offensive coordinator Nathaniel Hackett, and our trusted projections expect their pass/run mix to lean 1.8% more towards passing than it did last season (context-neutralized).
Based on their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics, the leading projections forecast the Jets to pass on 59.8% of their plays: the 7th-greatest rate on the slate this week.
Given the game dynamics and the underlying play styles of each team, this game is forecasted by our trusted projection set to have 131.6 plays on offense called: the 4th-most out of all the games this week.
This week, Breece Hall is anticipated by the projection model to slot into the 96th percentile among RBs with 5.8 targets.

Favors Under

The 6th-fewest plays in the league have been called by the Jets this year (a mere 54.9 per game on average).
With a RATE1-RATE2 point decrease in WOPR (Weighted Opportunity Rating—an advanced stat that quantifies high-value offensive involvement) from last season to this one, Breece Hall has been incorporated much less in his offense's pass game.
When it comes to pass protection (and the effect it has on all air attack stats), the O-line of the Jets grades out as the worst in football this year.

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