Breece Hall Receptions - Player Prop Bet Week 10

NFL · Player Props

Breece Hall

RB · New York Jets

Receptions

Las Vegas Raiders vs New York Jets · Week 10, 2023

Updated Nov 13, 2023 1:11 AM EST

Analysis

Breece Hall Receptions Prop is currently Over/Under 3.5 (+120/-156).

The money has been on the Over as it opened 2.5 @ -147 before it was bet up to 3.5 @ +120.

Key Factors

Favors Over

The New York Jets may lean on the pass less in this week's contest (and hand the ball off more) because they be forced to start backup quarterback Zach Wilson.
Accounting for their underlying strategic approach and matchup dynamics, our trusted projections expect the Jets to pass on 60.0% of their plays: the 7th-greatest frequency on the slate this week.
The passing offenses of both teams (as it relates to both volume and efficiency) ought to benefit from the calm "weather" conditions (i.e. no wind) inside this dome, while rush volume may fall-off.
Our trusted projections expect Breece Hall to accrue 4.9 targets in this week's contest, on balance, putting him in the 91st percentile when it comes to running backs.
Breece Hall rates as one of the top pass-game running backs this year, averaging a stellar 2.9 adjusted catches per game while grading out in the 86th percentile.

Favors Under

The model projects the Jets to call the 4th-fewest total plays on the slate this week with 62.4 plays, accounting for their underlying strategic approach and game dynamics.
The Jets have run the 9th-fewest plays in football this year, totaling just 55.4 plays per game.
Opposing teams teams have been unwilling to test the pass defense of the Las Vegas Raiders, averaging the 8th-fewest attempts in football (just 33.8 per game) this year.
With a RATE1-RATE2 point decline in WOPR (Weighted Opportunity Rating—an advanced metric that assesses high-value offensive involvement) from last season to this one, Breece Hall has been utilized much less in his team's air attack.
The New York offensive line profiles as the 3rd-worst in the NFL this year in pass protection, which has a negative influence on all pass attack metrics across the board.