Breece Hall Receiving Yards - Player Prop Bet Week 10

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Breece Hall

NFL · Player Props

Breece Hall

RB · New York Jets

Receiving Yards

New York Jets vs Buffalo Bills · Week 10, 2026

Updated Nov 15, 2026 8:47 AM EST

Analysis

Breece Hall Receiving Yards Prop is currently Over/Under 18.5 (-121/-110).

The money has been on the Over as it opened 16.5 @ -114 before it was bet up to 18.5 @ -121.

Key Factors

Favors Over

The Jets are a big 7.5-point underdog this week, likely creating an extreme passing game script.
The Buffalo Bills defense has been a bit of pass funnel this year, tempting opposing teams to attempt the 5th-most passes in the NFL (38.9 per game) this year.
The New York Jets O-line grades out as the 3rd-best in the NFL this year in protecting the QB, which has a strong effect on all passing attack metrics across the board.
With a fantastic 22.0 adjusted yards per game on passes (89th percentile) this year, Breece Hall stands as one of the best pass-game RBs in football.
Breece Hall's sure-handedness have improved this season, with his Adjusted Completion% increasing from 89.6% to 92.8%.

Favors Under

At the moment, the 10th-least pass-heavy team in football (59.1% adjusted for context) according to the predictive model is the Jets.
The projections expect the Jets to run the 5th-fewest offensive plays on the slate this week with 62.8 plays, accounting for their underlying propensities and game dynamics.
The 9th-smallest volume of plays in the NFL have been called by the Jets this year (a measly 55.3 per game on average).
Windy weather conditions (like the 12-mph being projected in this game) typically mean decreased passing efficiency, lower pass volume, and higher rush volume.
Breece Hall's 31.9% Route Participation Rate this year signifies a remarkable regression in his pass game workload over last year's 43.5% mark.

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