Breece Hall Receiving Yards - Player Prop Bet Week 14

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Breece Hall

NFL · Player Props

Breece Hall

RB · New York Jets

Receiving Yards

New York Jets vs Houston Texans · Week 14, 2023

Updated Dec 10, 2023 6:11 PM EST

Analysis

Breece Hall Receiving Yards Prop is currently Over/Under 25.5 (+100/-130).

The money has been on the Over as it opened 20.5 @ -130 before it was bet up to 25.5 @ +100.

Key Factors

Favors Over

The New York Jets may rely on the pass game less in this contest (and call more carries) because they be starting backup QB Zach Wilson.
The New York Jets have a new play-caller this season in offensive coordinator Nathaniel Hackett, and our trusted projections expect their pass/run mix to skew 1.6% more towards passing than it did last season (context-neutralized).
A passing game script is suggested by the Jets being a -3-point underdog this week.
At a mere 27.04 seconds per snap, the Jets offense ranks as the 10th-fastest paced in the league (adjusted for context) this year.
In this week's game, Breece Hall is anticipated by the model to secure a spot in the 99th percentile when it comes to RBs with 6.0 targets.

Favors Under

Windy weather conditions (like the 14-mph being called for in this game) generally lead to lessened passing effectiveness, reduced air volume, and higher ground volume.
Breece Hall has totaled significantly fewer air yards this season (-3.0 per game) than he did last season (23.0 per game).
Breece Hall's 20.3 WOPR (Weighted Opportunity Rating—an advanced metric that assesses high-value offensive usage) has been notably lower this season than it was last season at 26.5.
When talking about pass protection (and the impact it has on all air attack metrics), the O-line of the Jets ranks as the 2nd-worst in the league this year.
Breece Hall has been one of the bottom running backs in the league at generating extra yardage in the passing game, averaging a lowly 0.00 yards-after-the-catch (YAC) this year while grading out in the 2nd percentile.

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