Breece Hall Receiving Yards - Player Prop Bet Week 1

NFL · Player Props

Breece Hall

RB · New York Jets

Receiving Yards

New York Jets vs Baltimore Ravens · Week 1, 2022

Updated Sep 11, 2022 11:34 PM EST

Analysis

Breece Hall Receiving Yards Prop is currently Over/Under 13.5 (-150/+105).

The money has been on the Over as it opened 11.5 @ -115 before it was bet up to 13.5 @ -150.

Key Factors

Favors Over

The Jets are a 6.5-point underdog this week, likely creating a passing game script.
The weather report calls for 4-mph wind in this game. Low wind typically means higher pass volume, higher TD potential, and better passing efficiency.
The Baltimore Ravens defense has allowed the 6th-most receiving yards per game in football (43.0) versus RBs since the start of last season.
The Baltimore Ravens pass defense has displayed poor efficiency versus running backs since the start of last season, allowing 8.26 yards-per-target to the position: the most in football.
The Baltimore Ravens pass defense has been particularly weak when opposing RBs have gotten into space, yielding an average of 8.30 yards-after-the-catch since the start of last season: the 5th-most in football.

Favors Under

THE BLITZ projects the Jets to run the 8th-least plays on offense among all teams this week with 60.6 plays, given their underlying tendencies and game dynamics.
The New York Jets have called the 5th-least plays in the NFL since the start of last season, averaging a measly 60.4 plays per game.
The Baltimore Ravens pass rush has gotten pressure on opposing QBs just 2.39 seconds after the snap (on average), ranking as the 5th-best in the league since the start of last season.
The New York Jets have faced a stacked the box on just 13.6% of their plays since the start of last season, 9th-least in football. Keeping an extra defender near the line of scrimmage improves run-stopping at the cost of better passing efficiency.
The New York Jets have used play action on a measly 23.1% of their dropbacks since the start of last season (8th-least in football), creating a more one-dimensional offense that hurts passing production.