Breece Hall Carries - Player Prop Bet Week 6

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Breece Hall

NFL · Player Props

Breece Hall

RB · New York Jets

Carries

New York Jets vs Philadelphia Eagles · Week 6, 2023

Updated Oct 16, 2023 12:06 AM EST

Analysis

Breece Hall Carries Prop is currently Over/Under 12.5 (-120/-110).

The money has been on the Under as it opened 13.5 @ -135 before it was bet down to 12.5 @ -110.

Key Factors

Favors Over

The Jets have a new play-caller this season in offensive coordinator Nathaniel Hackett, and our trusted projections expect their pass/run mix to skew 1.1% more towards rushing than it did last season (in a neutral context).
The projections expect Breece Hall to accumulate 14.7 carries in this game, on average, ranking him in the 86th percentile when it comes to RBs.
Among all running backs, Breece Hall grades out in the 83rd percentile for rush attempts this year, comprising 48.6% of the workload in his offense's rushing attack.

Favors Under

The New York Jets may pass less in this contest (and hand the ball off more) since they be rolling with backup QB Zach Wilson.
The Jets are a 6.5-point underdog this week, likely creating a passing game script.
The model projects the New York Jets as the 10th-least run-focused team on the slate this week with a 40.3% run rate, given their underlying propensities and matchup dynamics.
Right now, the 5th-slowest paced team in football (context-neutralized) according to the predictive model is the New York Jets.
The the New York Jets offensive line ranks as the worst in the league last year at blocking for rushers.

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