Breece Hall Carries - Player Prop Bet Week 14

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Breece Hall

NFL · Player Props

Breece Hall

RB · New York Jets

Carries

New York Jets vs Houston Texans · Week 14, 2023

Updated Dec 10, 2023 9:01 PM UTC

Analysis

Breece Hall Carries Prop is currently Over/Under 12.5 (-110/-120).

The money has been on the Under as it opened 12.5 @ +105 before it was bet down to 12.5 @ -120.

Key Factors

Favors Over

At a mere 27.04 seconds per snap, the Jets offense ranks as the 10th-fastest paced in the league (adjusted for context) this year.
Windy weather conditions (like the 14-mph being called for in this game) generally lead to lessened passing effectiveness, reduced air volume, and higher ground volume.
The model projects Breece Hall to notch 16.2 rush attempts in this week's contest, on average, placing him in the 85th percentile among RBs.
Out of all running backs, Breece Hall ranks in the 89th percentile for rush attempts this year, accounting for 56.0% of the workload in his offense's running game.
The Houston Texans defensive tackles profile as the worst collection of DTs in the league this year in regard to run defense.

Favors Under

The New York Jets may rely on the pass game less in this contest (and call more carries) because they be starting backup QB Zach Wilson.
The New York Jets have a new play-caller this season in offensive coordinator Nathaniel Hackett, and our trusted projections expect their pass/run mix to skew 1.6% more towards passing than it did last season (context-neutralized).
A passing game script is suggested by the Jets being a -3-point underdog this week.
As it relates to opening holes for runners (and the influence it has on all ground game stats), the offensive line of the New York Jets ranks as the worst in the league last year.

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