Braxton Berrios Receptions - Player Prop Bet Week 9

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Braxton Berrios

NFL · Player Props

Braxton Berrios

WR · Miami Dolphins

Receptions

Kansas City Chiefs vs Miami Dolphins · Week 9, 2023

Updated Nov 6, 2023 12:51 AM UTC

Analysis

Braxton Berrios Receptions Prop is currently Over/Under 2.5 (+150/-194).

The money has been on the Over as it opened 2.5 @ +154 before it was bet up to 2.5 @ +150.

Key Factors

Favors Over

Based on their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics, our trusted projections expect the Miami Dolphins to pass on 63.7% of their opportunities: the 4th-highest clip on the slate this week.
The passing offenses of both teams (including both volume and efficiency) stand to benefit from the calm "weather" conditions (read: zero wind) inside this dome, while run volume may drop-off.
Braxton Berrios's 21.7 WOPR (Weighted Opportunity Rating—an advanced stat that examines high-value offensive usage) has been quite a bit higher this season than it was last season at 12.2.
Braxton Berrios's receiving talent has gotten better this season, compiling 2.5 adjusted catches vs a mere 1.2 last season.
Braxton Berrios's 77.4% Adjusted Catch% this season represents a material progression in his receiving proficiency over last season's 58.9% rate.

Favors Under

Right now, the 4th-slowest paced team in the NFL (adjusted for context) according to the model is the Miami Dolphins.
Opposing quarterbacks have averaged 31.4 pass attempts per game vs. the Kansas City Chiefs defense this year: 4th-fewest in football.
This year, the imposing Kansas City Chiefs defense has yielded a puny 59.4% Adjusted Completion Rate vs. opposing wide receivers: the 4th-best rate in the league.
The Kansas City Chiefs linebackers profile as the 4th-best unit in football this year with their pass rush.

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