Braxton Berrios Receptions - Player Prop Bet Week 5

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Braxton Berrios

NFL · Player Props

Braxton Berrios

WR · Miami Dolphins

Receptions

Miami Dolphins vs New York Giants · Week 5, 2023

Updated Oct 8, 2023 7:26 PM UTC

Analysis

Braxton Berrios Receptions Prop is currently Over/Under 2.5 (+102/-132).

The money has been on the Under as it opened 2.5 @ +100 before it was bet down to 2.5 @ -132.

Key Factors

Favors Over

Our trusted projections expect the Dolphins to be the 9th-most pass-oriented team in the NFL (in a neutral context) at the present time with a 63.2% pass rate.
Braxton Berrios has been used less as a potential pass-catcher this year (53.5% Route Participation Rate in games he has played) than he did last year (27.9%).
Braxton Berrios's play as a receiver has gotten a boost this season, accumulating 3.3 adjusted receptions vs just 1.2 last season.
Braxton Berrios's receiving reliability have been refined this year, with his Adjusted Catch Rate increasing from 58.9% to 77.8%.
The Giants cornerbacks grade out as the 3rd-worst group of CBs in football this year in pass coverage.

Favors Under

The Dolphins are a giant 13-point favorite in this week's contest, likely creating an extreme rushing game script.
The leading projections forecast the Dolphins offense to be the 6th-worst paced team in football (adjusted for context) at the moment, averaging 29.12 seconds per snap.
Opposing teams teams have been wary to lean on the pass against the New York Giants, averaging the 3rd-fewest attempts in the NFL (a lowly 29.2 per game) this year.
Since the start of last season, the imposing New York Giants defense has conceded a feeble 64.6% Adjusted Completion Rate versus opposing WRs: the 10th-smallest rate in the NFL.

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