Braxton Berrios Receptions - Player Prop Bet Week 4

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Braxton Berrios

NFL · Player Props

Braxton Berrios

WR · Miami Dolphins

Receptions

Buffalo Bills vs Miami Dolphins · Week 4, 2023

Updated Oct 1, 2023 9:41 PM EST

Analysis

Braxton Berrios Receptions Prop is currently Over/Under 2.5 (+120/-155).

The money has been on the Over as it opened 2.5 @ +125 before it was bet up to 2.5 @ +120.

Key Factors

Favors Over

The Dolphins are a 3-point underdog in this game, which points towards a passing game script.
The leading projections forecast the Dolphins as the 6th-most pass-oriented team on the slate this week with a 62.7% pass rate, based on their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics.
Braxton Berrios's 26.2 WOPR (Weighted Opportunity Rating—a volume stat that measures high-value offensive involvement) has been significantly better this year than it was last year at 12.2.
Braxton Berrios's possession skills have been refined this season, with his Completion% rising from 58.9% to 64.7%.

Favors Under

The leading projections forecast the Dolphins to run the 7th-fewest offensive plays among all teams this week with 62.2 plays, given their underlying tendencies and game dynamics.
The Dolphins have called the 3rd-fewest plays in football since the start of last season, totaling a mere 54.5 plays per game.
Opposing quarterbacks have averaged 31.2 pass attempts per game against the Bills defense since the start of last season: 5th-fewest in football.
Braxton Berrios has been among the bottom wide receivers in the game since the start of last season, averaging just 1.4 receptions per game while checking in at the 24th percentile among wideouts.
When it comes to safeties in defending receivers, Buffalo's safety corps has been phenomenal since the start of last season, ranking as the 5th-best in the NFL.

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