Braxton Berrios Receptions - Player Prop Bet Week 3

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Braxton Berrios

NFL · Player Props

Braxton Berrios

WR · Miami Dolphins

Receptions

Miami Dolphins vs Denver Broncos · Week 3, 2023

Updated Sep 24, 2023 8:01 PM UTC

Analysis

Braxton Berrios Receptions Prop is currently Over/Under 2.5 (-155/+125).

Key Factors

Favors Over

THE BLITZ projects the Miami Dolphins as the 5th-most pass-centric offense in the league (adjusted for context) right now with a 64.1% pass rate.
THE BLITZ projects Braxton Berrios to be much more involved in his team's air attack this week (16.0% projected Target Share) than he has been since the start of last season (6.7% in games he has played).
The Denver Broncos cornerbacks grade out as the 7th-worst collection of CBs in the league since the start of last season in covering pass-catchers.

Favors Under

The Dolphins are a 6-point favorite this week, likely leading to a rushing game script.
THE BLITZ projects this game to have the 3rd-least plays run among all games this week at 124.1 plays, based on the tendencies of each team and game dynamics.
The Miami Dolphins have called the 3rd-least plays in the league since the start of last season, averaging a mere 54.2 plays per game.
Braxton Berrios has been among the weakest pass-catching wide receivers since the start of last season, averaging just 1.4 receptions per game while checking in at the 22nd percentile among wide receivers.

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