Braxton Berrios Receptions - Player Prop Bet Week 1

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NFL · Player Props

Braxton Berrios

WR · New York Jets

Receptions

New York Jets vs Baltimore Ravens · Week 1, 2022

Updated Sep 11, 2022 11:34 PM UTC

Analysis

Braxton Berrios Receptions Prop is currently Over/Under 2.5 (-156/+122).

The money has been on the Under as it opened 2.5 @ +140 before it was bet down to 2.5 @ +122.

Key Factors

Favors Over

The Jets are a 6.5-point underdog this week, likely creating a passing game script.
The weather report calls for 4-mph wind in this game. Low wind typically means higher pass volume, higher TD potential, and better passing efficiency.
Braxton Berrios has been among the most sure-handed receivers in football, hauling in an impressive 77.8% of passes thrown his way since the start of last season, checking in at the 94th percentile among WRs.
The Baltimore Ravens safeties project as the 5th-worst safety corps in the NFL since the start of last season in pass coverage.
The New York Jets O-line has given their quarterback 2.69 seconds before the pass (5th-best in football since the start of last season), which has a positive impact on all air attack stats across the board.

Favors Under

THE BLITZ projects the Jets to run the 8th-least plays on offense among all teams this week with 60.6 plays, given their underlying tendencies and game dynamics.
The New York Jets have called the 5th-least plays in the NFL since the start of last season, averaging a measly 60.4 plays per game.
The Baltimore Ravens pass defense has surrendered the 8th-lowest Completion% in the league (63.5%) versus wideouts since the start of last season (63.5%).
The Baltimore Ravens pass rush has gotten pressure on opposing QBs just 2.39 seconds after the snap (on average), ranking as the 5th-best in the league since the start of last season.
The New York Jets have faced a stacked the box on just 13.6% of their plays since the start of last season, 9th-least in football. Keeping an extra defender near the line of scrimmage improves run-stopping at the cost of better passing efficiency.