Braxton Berrios Receiving Yards - Player Prop Bet Week 6

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Braxton Berrios

NFL · Player Props

Braxton Berrios

WR · Miami Dolphins

Receiving Yards

Miami Dolphins vs Carolina Panthers · Week 6, 2023

Updated Oct 16, 2023 3:01 AM UTC

Analysis

Braxton Berrios Receiving Yards Prop is currently Over/Under 20.5 (-110/-110).

The money has been on the Under as it opened 22.5 @ -110 before it was bet down to 20.5 @ -110.

Key Factors

Favors Over

Braxton Berrios has gone out for fewer passes this season (53.4% Route% in games he has played) than he did last season (27.9%).
After averaging 13.0 air yards per game last year, Braxton Berrios has produced significantly more this year, now averaging 36.0 per game.
Braxton Berrios's 34.0 adjusted yards per game through the air this year signifies a a remarkable growth in his pass-catching ability over last year's 11.0 mark.
Braxton Berrios's possession skills have gotten better this year, with his Adjusted Catch% increasing from 58.9% to 79.8%.
Braxton Berrios's receiving effectiveness has gotten better this season, averaging 9.05 adjusted yards-per-target compared to just 5.46 mark last season.

Favors Under

The Dolphins are a giant 14-point favorite in this week's contest, indicating an extreme rushing game script.
The model projects the Miami Dolphins to be the 7th-least pass-oriented offense among all teams this week with a 54.9% pass rate, accounting for their underlying traits and matchup dynamics.
The leading projections forecast the Miami Dolphins offense to be the 8th-most sluggish paced team in football (context-neutralized) right now, averaging 29.19 seconds per play.
Opposing quarterbacks teams have been unwilling to test the pass defense of the Carolina Panthers, averaging the 5th-fewest attempts in the league (a measly 30.6 per game) this year.
Braxton Berrios's 4.20 yards-after-the-catch (YAC) this season marks a an impressive drop-off in his efficiency in the open field over last season's 6.6% rate.

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