Brandon Powell Receiving Yards - Player Prop Bet Week 10

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NFL · Player Props

Brandon Powell

WR · Minnesota Vikings

Receiving Yards

Minnesota Vikings vs New Orleans Saints · Week 10, 2023

Updated Nov 12, 2023 5:56 PM UTC

Analysis

Brandon Powell Receiving Yards Prop is currently Over/Under 21.5 (-110/-110).

The money has been on the Under as it opened 23.5 @ -113 before it was bet down to 21.5 @ -110.

Key Factors

Favors Over

The Vikings will be rolling with backup QB Joshua Dobbs in this contest, which generally means fewer pass attempts and more rushing.
Given their underlying strategic approach and matchup dynamics, the predictive model expects the Minnesota Vikings to pass on 63.1% of their plays: the 4th-highest clip on the slate this week.
Based on the game dynamics and the underlying approaches of each team, this game is anticipated by the projection model to see 132.2 plays on offense called: the highest number among all games this week.
The pass attacks of both teams (as it relates to both volume and efficiency) stand to benefit from the calm "weather" conditions (meaning zero wind) inside this dome, while rush volume may fall-off.
Our trusted projections expect Brandon Powell to be much more involved in his team's air attack in this contest (13.5% projected Target Share) than he has been this year (8.5% in games he has played).

Favors Under

Brandon Powell's possession skills have declined this year, with his Adjusted Catch% shrinking from 75.9% to 72.3%.
Brandon Powell's talent in generating extra yardage have tailed off this season, totaling a measly 2.87 yards-after-the-catch (YAC) vs a 7.21 rate last season.
The New Orleans Saints pass defense has given up the 5th-lowest Adjusted Completion% in the NFL (59.6%) vs. WRs this year (59.6%).
This year, the formidable Saints defense has surrendered the 4th-least adjusted yards-per-target in the league to opposing wide receivers: a puny 7.2 yards.
The New Orleans Saints cornerbacks project as the 6th-best unit in football this year in covering receivers.