Brandon Johnson Receptions - Player Prop Bet Week 15

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Brandon Johnson

NFL · Player Props

Brandon Johnson

WR · Denver Broncos

Receptions

Denver Broncos vs Arizona Cardinals · Week 15, 2022

Updated Dec 19, 2022 12:11 AM UTC

Analysis

Brandon Johnson Receptions Prop is currently Over/Under 2.5 (+132/-180).

The money has been on the Under as it opened 2.5 @ -175 before it was bet down to 2.5 @ -180.

Key Factors

Favors Over

The Denver Broncos will be forced to use backup QB Brett Rypien this week, which generally means fewer pass attempts and more rush attempts.
The Denver Broncos boast a new play-caller this year in head coach Nathaniel Hackett, and THE BLITZ projects their pass/run mix to skew 2.3% more towards passing than it did last year (adjusted for context).
The Broncos have been the 10th-most pass-centric team in football (adjusted for context) this year with a 62.0% pass rate.
THE BLITZ projects this game to see the 3rd-highest volume of plays run out of all the games this week at 134.7 plays, based on the tendencies of each team and game dynamics.
The weather forecast calls for 4-mph wind in this game. Low wind usually means higher pass volume, higher TD potential, and increased passing effectiveness.

Favors Under

The Arizona Cardinals defensive front has gotten pressure on opposing quarterbacks a mere 2.44 seconds after the snap (on average), grading out as the 10th-best in football since the start of last season.
The Denver Broncos have gone no-huddle on just 3.8% of their plays outside the two-minute warning since the start of last season (8th-least in football). This slows the pace, leading to less volume and stat production.

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