Brandon Aiyuk Receptions - Player Prop Bet Week 1

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NFL · Player Props

Brandon Aiyuk

WR · San Francisco 49ers

Receptions

Chicago Bears vs San Francisco 49ers · Week 1, 2022

Updated Sep 11, 2022 7:38 PM EST

Analysis

Brandon Aiyuk Receptions Prop is currently Over/Under 3.5 (+126/-162).

The money has been on the Under as it opened 3.5 @ -120 before it was bet down to 3.5 @ -162.

Key Factors

Favors Over

Brandon Aiyuk has run a route on 88.2% of his offense's dropbacks since the start of last season, placing him in the 83rd percentile among wideouts.
The San Francisco 49ers offensive line ranks as the 7th-best in the league since the start of last season in protecting the QB, which has a strong effect on all passing offense stats across the board.
The Chicago Bears cornerbacks grade out as the 7th-worst collection of CBs in the league since the start of last season in covering receivers.
The Chicago Bears pass rush has gotten pressure on opposing QBs 2.51 seconds after the snap (on average), ranking as the 10th-slowest in football since the start of last season.
The San Francisco 49ers have gone up against a stacked the box on 18.6% of their plays since the start of last season, 8th-most in the league. Keeping an extra defender near the line of scrimmage improves run-stopping at the expense of better passing efficiency.

Favors Under

The 49ers are a 6.5-point favorite in this week's contest, indicating a rushing game script.
THE BLITZ projects the San Francisco 49ers as the least pass-heavy offense among all teams this week with a 46.6% pass rate, accounting for their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics.
THE BLITZ projects the 49ers to call the 4th-least total plays among all teams this week with 60.4 plays, given their underlying tendencies and game dynamics.
The San Francisco 49ers have called the 6th-least plays in the NFL since the start of last season, averaging a measly 60.5 plays per game.
Opposing quarterbacks have averaged 27.2 pass attempts per game vs. the Chicago Bears defense since the start of last season: least in the NFL.