Brandon Aiyuk Receiving TD - Player Prop Bet Week 4

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NFL · Player Props

Brandon Aiyuk

WR · San Francisco 49ers

Receiving TD

San Francisco 49ers vs Los Angeles Rams · Week 4, 2022

Updated Oct 3, 2022 11:25 PM UTC

Analysis

Brandon Aiyuk Receiving TD Prop is currently Over/Under 0.5 (+215/-329).

The money has been on the Over as it opened 0.5 @ +220 before it was bet up to 0.5 @ +215.

Key Factors

Favors Over

Opposing teams have averaged 38.1 pass attempts per game against the Los Angeles Rams defense since the start of last season: 3rd-most in the league.
Brandon Aiyuk has been responsible for a monstrous 24.5% of his offense's air yards since the start of last season: 80th percentile among wide receivers.
The San Francisco 49ers O-line grades out as the 4th-best in the league since the start of last season in protecting the QB, which has a positive impact on all pass game metrics across the board.
The Los Angeles Rams pass defense has surrendered the highest Completion% in the league (72.5%) versus wide receivers this year (72.5%).
The San Francisco 49ers have gone up against a stacked the box on 18.6% of their plays since the start of last season, most in football. Bringing an extra defender close to the line of scrimmage improves run-stopping at the expense of better passing efficiency.

Favors Under

THE BLITZ projects this game to see the smallest volume of plays run on the slate this week at 124.7 plays, based on the tendencies of each team and game dynamics.
The San Francisco 49ers have called the least plays in the league since the start of last season, averaging a measly 57.0 plays per game.
THE BLITZ projects Brandon Aiyuk to be a much smaller piece of his offense's passing game near the end zone this week (20.9% projected Red Zone Target Share) than he has been this year (33.3% in games he has played).
Brandon Aiyuk's possession skills have worsened this season, with his Completion% shrinking from 65.3% to 59.2%.
The Los Angeles Rams defense has yielded the 5th-least passing TDs in football to WRs: 0.75 per game since the start of last season.