Brandon Aiyuk Receiving TD - Player Prop Bet Week 3

NFL · Player Props

Brandon Aiyuk

WR · San Francisco 49ers

Receiving TD

Denver Broncos vs San Francisco 49ers · Week 3, 2022

Updated Sep 25, 2022 11:35 PM UTC

Analysis

Brandon Aiyuk Receiving TD Prop is currently Over/Under 0.5 (+226/-352).

The money has been on the Under as it opened 0.5 @ -324 before it was bet down to 0.5 @ -352.

Key Factors

Favors Over

Brandon Aiyuk has been a key part of his team's passing attack near the end zone, earning a Red Zone Target Share of 17.2% since the start of last season, which ranks him in the 80th percentile among wideouts.
Brandon Aiyuk has accounted for a whopping 23.2% of his team's air yards since the start of last season: 78th percentile among wide receivers.
The San Francisco 49ers O-line ranks as the 4th-best in football since the start of last season in protecting the quarterback, which has a positive effect on all air attack stats across the board.
The Denver Broncos defensive front has gotten pressure on opposing QBs 2.53 seconds after the snap (on average), ranking as the 6th-slowest in football since the start of last season.
The San Francisco 49ers have been faced with a stacked the box on 18.6% of their plays since the start of last season, 8th-most in the NFL. Keeping an extra defender near the line of scrimmage improves run-stopping at the cost of better passing efficiency.

Favors Under

THE BLITZ projects this game to have the smallest volume of plays run on the slate this week at 116.4 plays, based on the tendencies of each team and game dynamics.
The San Francisco 49ers have run the 9th-least plays in football since the start of last season, totaling just 61.5 plays per game.
Opposing teams have averaged 32.0 pass attempts per game vs. the Denver Broncos defense since the start of last season: 6th-least in football.
The Denver Broncos pass defense has allowed the 6th-lowest Completion% in football (61.3%) versus wideouts since the start of last season (61.3%).
The Denver Broncos defense has allowed the 10th-least passing touchdowns in football to wide receivers: 0.84 per game since the start of last season.