Brandon Aiyuk Receiving TD - Player Prop Bet Week 1

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NFL · Player Props

Brandon Aiyuk

WR · San Francisco 49ers

Receiving TD

Chicago Bears vs San Francisco 49ers · Week 1, 2022

Updated Sep 11, 2022 7:38 PM EST

Analysis

Brandon Aiyuk Receiving TD Prop is currently Over/Under 0.5 (+239/-382).

The money has been on the Under as it opened 0.5 @ -343 before it was bet down to 0.5 @ -382.

Key Factors

Favors Over

THE BLITZ projects Brandon Aiyuk to be a more integral piece of his offense's passing game near the end zone this week (22.9% projected Red Zone Target Share) than he has been since the start of last season (16.4% in games he has played).
Brandon Aiyuk has earned a whopping 22.8% of his offense's air yards since the start of last season: 78th percentile among wide receivers.
The San Francisco 49ers offensive line ranks as the 7th-best in the league since the start of last season in protecting the QB, which has a strong effect on all passing offense stats across the board.
The Chicago Bears defense has yielded the 2nd-most passing touchdowns in the league to wideouts: 1.35 per game since the start of last season.
The Chicago Bears cornerbacks grade out as the 7th-worst collection of CBs in the league since the start of last season in covering receivers.

Favors Under

The 49ers are a 6.5-point favorite in this week's contest, indicating a rushing game script.
THE BLITZ projects the 49ers to call the 4th-least total plays among all teams this week with 60.4 plays, given their underlying tendencies and game dynamics.
The San Francisco 49ers have called the 6th-least plays in the NFL since the start of last season, averaging a measly 60.5 plays per game.
Opposing quarterbacks have averaged 27.2 pass attempts per game vs. the Chicago Bears defense since the start of last season: least in the NFL.
The San Francisco 49ers have gone no-huddle on just 3.4% of their plays outside the two-minute warning since the start of last season (7th-least in football). This deadens the pace, resulting in less volume and stat-padding.