Brandin Cooks Receiving Yards - Player Prop Bet Week 1

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NFL · Player Props

Brandin Cooks

WR · Dallas Cowboys

Receiving Yards

Cleveland Browns vs Dallas Cowboys · Week 1, 2024

Updated Sep 8, 2024 3:31 PM EST

Analysis

Brandin Cooks Receiving Yards Prop is currently Over/Under 40.5 (-110/-110).

The money has been on the Over as it opened 39.5 @ -111 before it was bet up to 40.5 @ -110.

Key Factors

Favors Over

The projections expect the Dallas Cowboys to be the 9th-most pass-heavy offense on the slate this week with a 60.4% pass rate, based on their underlying play style and matchup dynamics.
Accounting for the game dynamics and the underlying approaches of each team, this game is forecasted by the predictive model to have 134.7 total plays run: the most among all games this week.
The 5th-largest volume of plays in football have been called by the Cowboys last year (a staggering 60.4 per game on average).
Brandin Cooks has played on 75.2% of his team's snaps last year, putting him in the 76th percentile when it comes to wideouts.
Brandin Cooks has totaled a whopping 71.0 air yards per game last year: 79th percentile among wideouts.

Favors Under

The Cowboys have played in the 3rd-most "low wind" (4-mph or less) games in the NFL last year, which ought to result in lower pass volume, higher running volume, and reduced offense efficiency when facing windier conditions in this week's game.
The weather forecast calls for 13-mph wind in this game. High wind generally means reduced pass volume (and increased run volume) and decreased passing effectiveness.
Opposing QBs teams have been unwilling to rely on the passing game too much against the Cleveland Browns, averaging the 6th-fewest attempts in football (a measly 31.1 per game) last year.
Brandin Cooks comes in as one of the weakest wide receivers in football at picking up extra yardage, averaging a mere 2.54 yards-after-the-catch (YAC) last year while checking in at the 12th percentile.
The Cleveland Browns pass defense has surrendered the lowest Adjusted Completion% in the NFL (54.2%) vs. WRs last year (54.2%).