Boston Scott Receptions - Player Prop Bet Week 2

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Boston Scott

NFL · Player Props

Boston Scott

RB · Philadelphia Eagles

Receptions

Philadelphia Eagles vs Minnesota Vikings · Week 2, 2023

Updated Sep 15, 2023 12:01 AM EST

Analysis

Boston Scott Receptions Prop is currently Over/Under 0.5 (-175/+135).

The money has been on the Under as it opened 0.5 @ +149 before it was bet down to 0.5 @ +135.

Key Factors

Favors Over

The Philadelphia Eagles boast a new play-caller this year in offensive coordinator Brian Johnson, and THE BLITZ projects their pass/run mix to tilt 1.0% more towards passing than it did last year (context-neutralized).
The Eagles have been the 6th-most pass-oriented offense in football (adjusted for context) since the start of last season with a 68.8% pass rate.
THE BLITZ projects this game to see the largest volume of plays run out of all the games this week at 135.0 plays, given the tendencies of each team and game dynamics.
The Philadelphia Eagles have called the 9th-most plays in football since the start of last season, totaling a monstrous 59.5 plays per game.
Opposing quarterbacks have averaged 36.1 pass attempts per game vs. the Minnesota Vikings defense since the start of last season: 4th-most in the NFL.

Favors Under

The Eagles are a heavy 7-point favorite in this week's contest, likely creating an extreme rushing game script.
Boston Scott's 2.1 WOPR (Weighted Opportunity Rating—a volume metric that measures high-value offensive involvement) puts him in the company of the worst in the league: 12th percentile for running backs.
Boston Scott has been among the weakest pass-game running backs since the start of last season, averaging just 0.4 receptions per game while checking in at the 9th percentile among running backs.
The Minnesota Vikings safeties project as the 7th-best collection of safeties in the league since the start of last season in covering receivers.

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