Bijan Robinson Touchdowns - Player Prop Bet Week 4

NFL · Player Props

Bijan Robinson

RB · Atlanta Falcons

Touchdowns

New Orleans Saints vs Atlanta Falcons · Week 4, 2026

Updated Oct 4, 2026 9:32 AM EST

Analysis

Bijan Robinson Touchdowns Prop is currently Over/Under 0.5 (-199/+166).

The money has been on the Under as it opened 1.5 @ 0 before it was bet down to 0.5 @ +166.

Key Factors

Favors Over

The predictive model expects this game to have the largest volume of plays run on the slate this week at 136.0 plays, given the approaches of each team and game dynamics.
The air attacks of both teams (as it relates to both volume and effectiveness) figure to benefit from the still "weather" conditions (i.e. no wind) inside this dome, while run volume may drop-off.
While Bijan Robinson has garnered 91.7% of his team's red zone rushing play calls in games he has played this year, the leading projections forecast him to be a less important option in Atlanta's rushing attack near the goal line in this week's contest at 69.6%.
While Bijan Robinson has earned 0.0% of his team's red zone targets in games he has played this year, our trusted projections expect him to be a more integral piece of Atlanta's offense near the end zone in this game at 16.5%.
As it relates to air yards, Bijan Robinson ranks in the lofty 91st percentile among RBs since the start of last season, accruing a monstrous 2.0 per game. (considering most of their targets come behind the line of scrimmage, this is much more impressive than it sounds since most RBs have negative air yards).

Favors Under

The predictive model expects the Atlanta Falcons as the 8th-least pass-focused team among all teams this week with a 55.8% pass rate, given their underlying traits and matchup dynamics.
At the moment, the 2nd-most run-oriented team in the league near the end zone (48.6% in a neutral context) according to the predictive model is the Atlanta Falcons.
Opposing quarterbacks have averaged 29.4 pass attempts per game against the New Orleans Saints defense since the start of last season: 2nd-fewest in the league.
With a remarkable rate of 0.39 touchdowns on the ground per game (87th percentile), Bijan Robinson ranks as one of the leading rushing TD-scorers in football since the start of last season.
The Saints defense has allowed the 9th-fewest touchdowns through the air in football to RBs: 0.15 per game since the start of last season.