Bijan Robinson Touchdowns - Player Prop Bet Week 3

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NFL · Player Props

Bijan Robinson

RB · Atlanta Falcons

Touchdowns

Green Bay Packers vs Atlanta Falcons · Week 3, 2026

Updated Sep 24, 2026 8:03 PM EST

Analysis

Bijan Robinson Touchdowns Prop is currently Over/Under 0.5 (-122/+120).

The money has been on the Over as it opened 0.5 @ -156 before it was bet up to 0.5 @ -122.

Key Factors

Favors Over

The Falcons may rely on the pass game less this week (and call more carries) since they be forced to use backup quarterback Michael Penix.
This game's line implies a throwing game script for the Falcons, who are -4.5-point underdogs.
The predictive model expects the Falcons to run the 4th-most plays on offense among all teams this week with 65.8 plays, accounting for their underlying strategic approach and game dynamics.
The pass attacks of both teams (as it relates to both volume and efficiency) ought to benefit from the still weather conditions (1-mph wind) being projected in this game, while ground volume may decline.
Opposing QBs have averaged 33.8 pass attempts per game versus the Packers defense since the start of last season: 8th-most in the NFL.

Favors Under

At the moment, the least pass-oriented offense in the league (55.7% context-neutralized) according to the projections is the Atlanta Falcons.
The Falcons have played in the 3rd-most "low wind" (4-mph or less) games in the league since the start of last season, which ought to result in lower pass volume, higher running volume, and reduced pass game results when facing windier conditions in this week's game.
Bijan Robinson has run for 0.32 TDs per game on the ground since the start of last season (on average), one of the highest marks in football when it comes to running backs (79th percentile).
Since the start of last season, the fierce Packers defense has given up a paltry 0.00 touchdowns through the air per game to opposing RBs: the best rate in the league.