Bijan Robinson Touchdowns - Player Prop Bet Week 2

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NFL · Player Props

Bijan Robinson

RB · Atlanta Falcons

Touchdowns

Atlanta Falcons vs Carolina Panthers · Week 2, 2026

Updated Sep 20, 2026 3:47 PM EST

Analysis

Bijan Robinson Touchdowns Prop is currently Over/Under 0.5 (-156/+153).

Key Factors

Favors Over

The Falcons will be forced to utilize backup quarterback Cooper Rush in this week's contest, which generally means fewer pass attempts and more rushing.
Our trusted projections expect this game to see the 2nd-highest number of plays run out of all the games this week at 132.5 plays, given the traits of each team and game dynamics.
The passing offenses of both teams (as it relates to both volume and efficiency) stand to benefit from the still "weather" conditions (i.e. no wind) inside this dome, while run volume may drop.
Bijan Robinson has been a key part of his team's passing attack near the goal line, posting a Red Zone Target Share of 20.6% last year, which ranks him in the 99th percentile among RBs.
When talking about air yards, Bijan Robinson ranks in the lofty 92nd percentile among running backs since the start of last season, averaging a monstrous 2.0 per game. (as a result of being targeted behind the line of scrimmage, that is much more impressive than it sounds since most RBs average negative air yards).

Favors Under

Our trusted projections expect the Atlanta Falcons to be the least pass-focused team in the NFL (adjusted for context) right now with a 55.8% pass rate.
Opposing offenses teams have been unwilling to lean on the pass against the Carolina Panthers, averaging the 9th-fewest attempts in the league (a lowly 30.1 per game) since the start of last season.
The leading projections forecast Bijan Robinson to be a more integral piece of his offense's running game near the end zone in this contest (59.3% projected Red Zone Carry Share) than he has been last year (49.3% in games he has played).
Bijan Robinson has rushed for 0.33 touchdowns per game on the ground since the start of last season (on average), one of the biggest marks in the league when it comes to running backs (80th percentile).
The Panthers defense has surrendered the 6th-fewest receiving touchdowns in the NFL to RBs: 0.11 per game since the start of last season.