Bijan Robinson Touchdowns - Player Prop Bet Week 1

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NFL · Player Props

Bijan Robinson

RB · Atlanta Falcons

Touchdowns

Pittsburgh Steelers vs Atlanta Falcons · Week 1, 2026

Updated Sep 13, 2026 1:02 PM EST

Analysis

Bijan Robinson Touchdowns Prop is currently Over/Under 0.5 (+100/-106).

Key Factors

Favors Over

The Falcons may take to the air less in this week's game (and call more carries) given that they be forced to use backup quarterback Cooper Rush.
A passing game script is indicated by the Falcons being a -6.5-point underdog this week.
Accounting for the game dynamics and the underlying approaches of each team, this game is predicted by the predictive model to have 129.3 total plays run: the 5th-most on the slate this week.
The Steelers defense has been a well-known pass funnel last year, causing opposing QBs to attempt the 5th-most passes in the NFL (35.8 per game) last year.
Bijan Robinson has been a big part of his team's offense near the end zone, earning a Red Zone Target Share of 20.6% last year, which puts him in the 98th percentile when it comes to RBs.

Favors Under

At the moment, the least pass-oriented offense in the NFL (56.8% in a neutral context) according to our trusted projection set is the Atlanta Falcons.
The Falcons have played in the 2nd-most "low wind" (4-mph or less) games in football last year, which should lead to lower pass volume, increased running volume, and reduced pass game performance when facing windier weather this week.
While Bijan Robinson has received 49.3% of his offense's red zone run game usage in games he has played last year, our trusted projections expect him to be a more important option in Atlanta's rushing attack near the goal line in this week's game at 62.7%.
With a poor 77.7% Adjusted Catch% (25th percentile) last year, Bijan Robinson places as one of the worst possession receivers in the league among RBs.
Bijan Robinson has run for 0.35 TDs per game on the ground last year (on average), one of the biggest marks in the NFL when it comes to RBs (80th percentile).