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Bijan Robinson

Bijan Robinson Receptions
Player Prop Week 5

Atlanta Falcons vs Tampa Bay Buccaneers

Bijan Robinson Receptions Prop is currently Over/Under 3.5 (-155/+120).

The money has been on the Over as it opened 3.5 @ -105 before it was bet up to 3.5 @ -155.

FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE OVER:

Given their underlying propensities and game dynamics, the Falcons are projected by the projection model to run 64.2 offensive plays in this game: the 7th-most on the slate this week.

The pass games of both teams (including both volume and efficiency) ought to benefit from the still "weather" conditions (read: zero wind) inside this dome, while run volume may slide.

Opposing quarterbacks have averaged 38.2 pass attempts per game versus the Buccaneers defense this year: 5th-most in the NFL.

In this game, Bijan Robinson is expected by our trusted projection set to slot into the 95th percentile among running backs with 5.2 targets.

With a stellar 3.8 adjusted catches per game (92nd percentile) this year, Bijan Robinson rates among the top pass-catching RBs in football.

FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE UNDER:

This week's spread suggests a running game script for the Falcons, who are favored by 3 points.

The Atlanta Falcons have run the 3rd-fewest plays in the league this year, averaging just 50.2 plays per game.

Bijan Robinson's 19.1 WOPR (Weighted Opportunity Rating—an advanced stat that assesses high-value offensive volume) has been significantly lower this season than it was last season at 24.9.

When it comes to pass-blocking (and the importance it has on all passing attack stats), the offensive line of the Falcons ranks as the 5th-worst in football this year.

When it comes to safeties in covering receivers, Tampa Bay's safety corps has been great this year, profiling as the 9th-best in football.

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