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Bijan Robinson Receptions Prop is currently Over/Under 3.5 (-164/+126).
The money has been on the Under as it opened 4.5 @ -133 before it was bet down to 3.5 @ +126.
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FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE OVER:
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Based on the game dynamics and the underlying approaches of each team, this game is predicted by the projection model to see 134.3 plays on offense called: the most out of all the games this week.The passing offenses of both teams (as it relates to both volume and efficiency) ought to benefit from the still "weather" conditions (i.e. zero wind) inside this dome, while ground volume may slide.Opposing quarterbacks have averaged 36.7 pass attempts per game versus the Saints defense this year: 6th-most in football.The predictive model expects Bijan Robinson to earn 5.9 targets in this week's game, on average, placing him in the 96th percentile when it comes to running backs.Bijan Robinson comes in as one of the best pass-catching running backs this year, averaging a stellar 4.2 adjusted catches per game while ranking in the 97th percentile.
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FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE UNDER:
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With a 3.5-point advantage, the Falcons are favored this week, indicating more of a focus on rushing than their typical approach.At the present time, the 9th-least pass-focused team in the league (58.9% context-neutralized) according to the projections is the Atlanta Falcons.The Atlanta Falcons have called the 10th-fewest plays in the league this year, averaging a mere 55.8 plays per game.Bijan Robinson's 19.6 WOPR (Weighted Opportunity Rating—an advanced statistic that assesses high-value offensive volume) has been quite a bit lower this season than it was last season at 24.9.In regards to pass-blocking (and the ramifications it has on all passing game stats), the offensive line of the Falcons profiles as the 8th-worst in football this year.
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