Bijan Robinson Receptions - Player Prop Bet Week 6

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Bijan Robinson

NFL · Player Props

Bijan Robinson

RB · Atlanta Falcons

Receptions

Atlanta Falcons vs Washington Commanders · Week 6, 2023

Updated Oct 16, 2023 2:56 AM UTC

Analysis

Bijan Robinson Receptions Prop is currently Over/Under 3.5 (+130/-166).

Key Factors

Favors Over

The passing attacks of both teams (in terms of both volume and efficiency) ought to benefit from the still "weather" conditions (meaning no wind) inside this dome, while rush volume may suffer.
Bijan Robinson has run a route on 69.3% of his offense's passing plays this year, ranking him in the 97th percentile when it comes to running backs.
The leading projections forecast Bijan Robinson to accrue 5.3 targets in this week's game, on average, putting him in the 97th percentile when it comes to running backs.
Bijan Robinson has been among the best pass-game running backs this year, averaging an impressive 4.2 adjusted catches per game while checking in at the 97th percentile.
When it comes to linebackers in defending pass-catchers, Washington's group of LBs has been very bad this year, profiling as the 4th-worst in the league.

Favors Under

The model projects the Atlanta Falcons as the 5th-least pass-centric offense on the slate this week with a 53.8% pass rate, given their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics.
The predictive model expects this game to see the 5th-fewest plays run on the slate this week at 126.7 plays, accounting for the tendencies of each team and game dynamics.
Since the start of last season, the stout Washington Commanders defense has yielded a measly 78.6% Adjusted Completion Rate vs. opposing running backs: the 9th-smallest rate in the league.

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