Bijan Robinson Receptions - Player Prop Bet Week 10

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Bijan Robinson

NFL · Player Props

Bijan Robinson

RB · Atlanta Falcons

Receptions

Arizona Cardinals vs Atlanta Falcons · Week 10, 2023

Updated Nov 12, 2023 8:41 PM UTC

Analysis

Bijan Robinson Receptions Prop is currently Over/Under 3.5 (-100/-130).

The money has been on the Over as it opened 3.5 @ +135 before it was bet up to 3.5 @ -100.

Key Factors

Favors Over

The projections expect the Atlanta Falcons to call the 4th-most total plays on the slate this week with 66.2 plays, based on their underlying tendencies and game dynamics.
The 6th-most plays in the NFL have been run by the Falcons this year (a colossal 62.0 per game on average).
The pass games of both teams (including both volume and effectiveness) figure to benefit from the still "weather" conditions (as in no wind) inside this dome, while ground volume may decline.
Bijan Robinson has run a route on 66.2% of his offense's dropbacks this year, putting him in the 97th percentile when it comes to running backs.
In this game, Bijan Robinson is anticipated by the model to secure a spot in the 90th percentile among running backs with 4.6 targets.

Favors Under

The projections expect the Falcons as the 3rd-least pass-focused team among all teams this week with a 53.9% pass rate, based on their underlying traits and matchup dynamics.
Opposing teams have averaged 33.6 pass attempts per game versus the Arizona Cardinals defense this year: 7th-fewest in the NFL.
With a poor 73.0% Adjusted Completion% (20th percentile) this year, Bijan Robinson rates among the most hard-handed receivers in the league when it comes to running backs.

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