Bijan Robinson Carries - Player Prop Bet Week 6

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Bijan Robinson

NFL · Player Props

Bijan Robinson

RB · Atlanta Falcons

Carries

Atlanta Falcons vs Washington Commanders · Week 6, 2023

Updated Oct 15, 2023 8:06 PM UTC

Analysis

Bijan Robinson Carries Prop is currently Over/Under 14.5 (-140/+110).

The money has been on the Over as it opened 14.5 @ -120 before it was bet up to 14.5 @ -140.

Key Factors

Favors Over

The predictive model expects the Falcons to be the 5th-most run-heavy team on the slate this week with a 46.2% run rate, based on their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics.
The model projects Bijan Robinson to garner 13.5 carries in this game, on average, ranking in the 81st percentile among running backs.
Among all running backs, Bijan Robinson ranks in the 81st percentile for rush attempts this year, making up 46.5% of the workload in his team's run game.
When talking about run support (and the influence it has on all ground game statistics), the O-line of the Atlanta Falcons grades out as the 2nd-best in the NFL last year.
As it relates to the linebackers' role in defending against the run, Washington's unit has been atrocious this year, ranking as the 2nd-worst in football. in football.

Favors Under

The predictive model expects this game to see the 5th-fewest plays run on the slate this week at 126.7 plays, accounting for the tendencies of each team and game dynamics.
The passing attacks of both teams (in terms of both volume and efficiency) ought to benefit from the still "weather" conditions (meaning no wind) inside this dome, while rush volume may suffer.

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