Ben Skowronek Receiving TD - Player Prop Bet Week 2

NFL · Player Props

Ben Skowronek

WR · Los Angeles Rams

Receiving TD

Los Angeles Rams vs Atlanta Falcons · Week 2, 2022

Updated Sep 18, 2022 11:25 PM UTC

Analysis

Ben Skowronek Receiving TD Prop is currently Over/Under 0.5 (+301/-536).

The money has been on the Under as it opened 0.5 @ -466 before it was bet down to 0.5 @ -536.

Key Factors

Favors Over

THE BLITZ projects the Rams to call the 4th-most plays on offense among all teams this week with 65.7 plays, given their underlying tendencies and game dynamics.
The forecast calls for 0-mph wind in this game. Low wind usually means increased pass volume, increased TD potential, and better passing efficiency.
THE BLITZ projects Ben Skowronek to be a more important option in his team's pass attack near the goal line this week (10.6% projected Red Zone Target Share) than he has been since the start of last season (2.1% in games he has played).
The Los Angeles Rams O-line ranks as the 5th-best in the NFL since the start of last season in pass protection, which has a strong effect on all passing game metrics across the board.
The Atlanta Falcons pass defense has yielded the 3rd-highest Completion% in the league (70.2%) to wide receivers since the start of last season (70.2%).

Favors Under

The Rams are an enormous 10.5-point favorite in this game, likely leading to an extreme rushing game script.
The Los Angeles Rams have run the 10th-least plays in football since the start of last season, averaging a mere 61.4 plays per game.
Ben Skowronek's 13.6 WOPR (Weighted Opportunity Rating—a volume stat that measures high-value offensive involvement) grades out among the worst in football: 22nd percentile for wide receivers.
Ben Skowronek ranks in the 1st percentile among wide receivers when it comes to catching touchdowns since the start of last season, averaging just 0.00 per game.
The Atlanta Falcons defense has gotten pressure on opposing quarterbacks a measly 2.43 seconds after the snap (on average), grading out as the 9th-quickest in the league since the start of last season.