Ben Skowronek Receiving TD - Player Prop Bet Week 1

NFL · Player Props

Ben Skowronek

WR · Los Angeles Rams

Receiving TD

Los Angeles Rams vs Buffalo Bills · Week 1, 2022

Updated Sep 8, 2022 11:47 PM EST

Analysis

Ben Skowronek Receiving TD Prop is currently Over/Under 0.5 (+422/-937).

The money has been on the Over as it opened 0.5 @ +425 before it was bet up to 0.5 @ +422.

Key Factors

Favors Over

THE BLITZ projects the Rams to run the 4th-most offensive plays on the slate this week with 64.6 plays, accounting for their underlying tendencies and game dynamics.
The forecast calls for 1-mph wind in this game. Low wind usually means increased pass volume, increased TD potential, and better passing effectiveness.
Opposing offenses have averaged 31.9 pass attempts per game vs. the Buffalo Bills defense since the start of last season: 9th-least in the league.
THE BLITZ projects Ben Skowronek to be a much bigger part of his offense's pass game near the end zone this week (7.6% projected Red Zone Target Share) than he has been since the start of last season (2.2% in games he has played).
The Los Angeles Rams offensive line profiles as the 4th-best in football since the start of last season in protecting the passer, which has a positive impact on all pass game statistics across the board.

Favors Under

The Los Angeles Rams have played in the 2nd-most "low wind" (4-mph or less) games in the league since the start of last season, which should lead to lower pass volume, higher running volume, and reduced passing offense efficiency when facing windier conditions in this week's contest.
Ben Skowronek's 11.1 WOPR (Weighted Opportunity Rating—a volume statistic that measures high-value offensive involvement) ranks among the worst in the NFL: 20th percentile for WRs.
Ben Skowronek ranks in the 1st percentile among WRs when it comes to catching TDs since the start of last season, averaging just 0.00 per game.
The Buffalo Bills pass defense has allowed the 3rd-lowest Completion% in football (60.9%) vs. WRs since the start of last season (60.9%).
The Buffalo Bills defense has allowed the least passing TDs in the NFL to WRs: 0.35 per game since the start of last season.