Ben Sims Receptions - Player Prop Bet Week 12

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Ben Sims

NFL · Player Props

Ben Sims

TE · Green Bay Packers

Receptions

Detroit Lions vs Green Bay Packers · Week 12, 2023

Updated Nov 23, 2023 4:36 PM EST

Analysis

Ben Sims Receptions Prop is currently Over/Under 1.5 (+275/-475).

The money has been on the Over as it opened 0.5 @ -155 before it was bet up to 1.5 @ +275.

Key Factors

Favors Over

An extreme throwing game script is implied by the Packers being a huge -8.5-point underdog in this game.
The projections expect the Packers as the 2nd-most pass-heavy team on the slate this week with a 64.3% pass rate, given their underlying propensities and matchup dynamics.
The passing games of both teams (as it relates to both volume and effectiveness) stand to benefit from the still "weather" conditions (meaning zero wind) inside this dome, while run volume may slide.
The Green Bay offensive line ranks as the 10th-best in the NFL this year in protecting the QB, which has a positive effect on all pass game metrics across the board.
The Detroit Lions safeties project as the 3rd-worst safety corps in football this year in pass coverage.

Favors Under

The predictive model expects the Packers to call the 2nd-fewest offensive plays among all teams this week with 61.9 plays, given their underlying play style and game dynamics.
The 9th-smallest volume of plays in the league have been run by the Packers this year (a lowly 56.1 per game on average).
The Detroit Lions pass defense has allowed the 10th-lowest Adjusted Completion% in football (69.9%) vs. TEs this year (69.9%).

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