Baker Mayfield Touchdowns - Player Prop Bet Week 9

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Baker Mayfield

NFL · Player Props

Baker Mayfield

QB · Tampa Bay Buccaneers

Touchdowns

Chicago Bears vs Tampa Bay Buccaneers · Week 9, 2026

Updated Nov 8, 2026 8:22 PM EST

Analysis

Baker Mayfield Touchdowns Prop is currently Over/Under 0.5 (+614/-641).

Key Factors

Favors Over

The Buccaneers are a 6-point underdog in this week's contest, likely leading to a passing game script.
This year, the daunting Bears run defense has conceded a meager 0.75 rushing touchdowns per game to opposing teams: the 9th-best rate in football.
The Bears cornerbacks rank as the worst unit in the NFL this year in defending receivers.

Favors Under

Accounting for their underlying strategic approach and matchup dynamics, the predictive model expects the Buccaneers to pass on 50.5% of their chances: the 2nd-lowest clip on the slate this week.
Our trusted projections expect the Buccaneers to be the 7th-most run-oriented offense in the NFL near the goal line (adjusted for context) right now with a 47.1% red zone run rate.
Given their underlying strategic approach and game dynamics, the Tampa Bay Buccaneers are predicted by the predictive model to call just 63.1 offensive plays in this contest: the 9th-lowest number among all teams this week.
The model projects Baker Mayfield to throw 29.7 passes in this week's game, on average: the 4th-fewest among all QBs.
Opposing QBs teams have been hesitant to pass too much against the Bears, averaging the 4th-fewest attempts in football (a measly 30.5 per game) this year.

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