Baker Mayfield Touchdowns - Player Prop Bet Week 8

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Baker Mayfield

NFL · Player Props

Baker Mayfield

QB · Tampa Bay Buccaneers

Touchdowns

Tampa Bay Buccaneers vs Atlanta Falcons · Week 8, 2026

Updated Oct 30, 2026 5:07 PM EST

Analysis

Baker Mayfield Touchdowns Prop is currently Over/Under 0.5 (+550/-750).

Key Factors

Favors Over

Opposing quarterbacks have averaged 44.0 pass attempts per game against the Falcons defense this year: 2nd-most in football.
Opposing teams have completed passes at the 9th-highest rate in the NFL against the Falcons defense this year (71.7% Adjusted Completion%).
The Atlanta Falcons defense has given up the 9th-most passing TDs in the NFL: 1.57 per game this year.

Favors Under

Given their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics, the projections expect the Tampa Bay Buccaneers to pass on 52.3% of their opportunities: the 2nd-lowest rate among all teams this week.
The Tampa Bay Buccaneers have been the 10th-most run-centric offense in football near the end zone (in a neutral context) this year with a 47.7% red zone run rate.
Given the game dynamics and the underlying approaches of each team, this contest is anticipated by the predictive model to see just 126.1 total plays called: the 2nd-lowest number among all games this week.
Our trusted projections expect Baker Mayfield to attempt 31.0 passes in this game, on balance: the 4th-fewest out of all QBs.
While Baker Mayfield has accounted for 10.0% of his team's red zone carries in games he has played this year, the leading projections forecast him to be a more integral piece of Tampa Bay's ground game near the goal line in this contest at 15.8%.

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