Baker Mayfield Touchdowns - Player Prop Bet Week 7

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Baker Mayfield

NFL · Player Props

Baker Mayfield

QB · Tampa Bay Buccaneers

Touchdowns

Carolina Panthers vs Tampa Bay Buccaneers · Week 7, 2026

Updated Oct 25, 2026 1:07 PM EST

Analysis

Baker Mayfield Touchdowns Prop is currently Over/Under 0.5 (+558/-643).

Key Factors

Favors Over

At a -3-point disadvantage, the Buccaneers are underdogs in this week's game, indicating more of an emphasis on throwing than their usual game plan.
Opposing offenses have averaged 39.6 pass attempts per game vs. the Carolina Panthers defense this year: 5th-most in football.

Favors Under

The leading projections forecast the Buccaneers to be the 8th-least pass-heavy team on the slate this week with a 57.3% pass rate, accounting for their underlying play style and matchup dynamics.
The Buccaneers offense has played at the 9th-slowest tempo in football (in a neutral context) this year, averaging 29.00 seconds per snap.
The leading projections forecast Baker Mayfield to attempt 34.6 passes in this game, on balance: the 9th-fewest among all QBs.
The leading projections forecast Baker Mayfield to be a more important option in his team's running game near the end zone in this week's contest (18.8% projected Red Zone Carry Share) than he has been this year (11.1% in games he has played).
This year, the imposing Carolina Panthers defense has given up a mere 67.4% Adjusted Completion Rate to opposing offenses: the 7th-smallest rate in football.

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